Going with the Flow: How the EERIE Project reveals the ocean's impact on our climate

Imagine you're a coastal city planner, grappling with the looming threat of rising sea levels. That formula could show you which areas are most at risk, so you can plan strategically for relocation and infrastructure development. 

Or perhaps you're an insurance executive, trying to assess the financial risks of increasingly frequent extreme weather events? The formula could provide insights into future storm patterns and flood zones, helping you make informed decisions about coverage and premiums. 
The truth is, we all have a stake in understanding climate change, and that understanding hinges on accurate predictions. That’s why the EERIE project (European Eddy-Rich Earth-System Models) project is working to make those predictions more reliable.

Vast and and still with much to be discovered, the ocean holds secrets that have long eluded climate scientists. Its swirling currents and eddies, sometimes hidden beneath the surface, play a crucial role in regulating the Earth's climate. Yet, these dynamic phenomena have remained largely unaccounted for in previously existing climate models, leaving a critical gap in our understanding of the planet's future.

Traditional climate models have been invaluable in understanding our planet’s climate, but they don’t usually include ocean mesoscale eddies. These are swirling currents that can range in size from less than 1 kilometre to tenths of kilometres across. Like underwater whirlpools, they are constantly moving and interacting with one another. They transport heat, carbon, and nutrients throughout the ocean, influencing weather patterns, sea levels, and the overall climate system. 

By incorporating eddies into climate models, scientists can gain a more complete and nuanced understanding of how the ocean interacts with the atmosphere and other components of the Earth system.

That’s why EERIE is striving to develop advanced climate models that accurately incorporate the influence of ocean eddies—a particularly challenging task due to the need for extremely high resolution. Achieving this level of detail requires running these models on the world’s most powerful supercomputers, which presents significant technical challenges.
This ambitious initiative is backed by the European Union, UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), and Switzerland State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation (SERI) that brings together 17 institutions across 9 countries. Its aim is to deliver more accurate and reliable climate predictions.

Let’s take a look at the benefits of that next. 

By improving the accuracy of climate models, EERIE aims to empower policymakers, businesses, and climate stakeholders to make more informed decisions about how to address climate change.

By explicitly representing the weather of the ocean in climate models, EERIE aims to achieve more accurate climate predictions. For example, understanding how heat is distributed in the ocean leads to more accurate forecasts of hurricanes, enabling better preparation and response strategies.

Then there’s energy efficiency. Traditional climate models require massive amounts of computational power, which is both costly and unsustainable. EERIE aims to halve the energy needed for these simulations. This means that high-fidelity climate modelling can be achieved more sustainably, reducing the environmental footprint of scientific research—a new trend known as the "golden age of climate modelling.”

Lastly, the focus on regional insights is crucial for local governments. Accurate climate models at the regional scale are essential for preparing for and mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events. By honing in on detailed ocean-atmosphere interactions, EERIE provides more reliable data for areas prone to such events, like coastal regions facing rising sea levels. This kind of detailed modelling is indispensable for developing effective adaptation strategies.

Let's put this into perspective with a real-world example. Consider the challenge faced by a national agricultural minister. The increasing frequency and severity of droughts and floods, driven by climate change, are disrupting crop yields and threatening food security. EERIE's enhanced climate models may offer more accurate predictions about rainfall patterns and extreme weather events, empowering the minister to make better informed decisions about crop selection, irrigation strategies, and disaster preparedness. 

The result? A more resilient agricultural sector and a nation better equipped to feed its people in the face of a changing climate.

This enhanced resilience extends beyond the realm of government decision-making. Businesses reliant on climate-sensitive operations, such as agriculture and tourism, can also leverage these improved models for better planning. Farmers, for instance, can anticipate droughts or floods with greater accuracy, allowing them to adjust their planting strategies and minimise potential losses. Similarly, tourism operators can proactively plan for off-season weather disruptions, ensuring the safety and comfort of their clients even in unpredictable conditions.

EERIE’s success is built on collaboration. The project brings together experts from diverse fields, ensuring a holistic approach to climate modelling. Regular meetings, hackathons, and events like the European Geoscience Union General Assembly foster a community of practice around these advanced models.

For those interested in contributing or learning more, EERIE offers various ways to engage. Whether you’re a researcher looking to collaborate, a policymaker seeking reliable data, or a concerned citizen wanting to learn more, EERIE’s website and social media offer valuable resources and updates.

With projects like EERIE working on it, that formula may become reality one day. Based on reliable, complete data, we’ll be able to predict the future of our planet. A healthy, habitable planet where informed experts can take proactive measures to safeguard our future. 

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